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Tool Kit 1: Health Care Workforce Shortage
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Posted April 1, 2004 Background InformationOver the next few decades, America faces a growing shortage of health care professionals. By 2010, demand for registered nurses is projected to rise by 15 percent, while demand for respiratory therapists, physical therapists, occupational therapists, physician's assistants and a wide range of technologists will grow by 50 percent or more. By 2020, demand could easily double. On the supply side, health professionals will be retiring at increasing rates while enrollment in many professional training programs remains flat. Unless these trends are changed, by 2020, the United States will be short 800,000 registered nurses, or 29 percent of the total required. This backgrounder outlines factors driving demand, issues in the current workforce, and opportunities for expanding the workforce to head off the shortage. IssuesThe primary driver of increasing demand for health care services is the rapid aging of the U.S. population. Between 2000 and 2020, the number of Americans age 65 and over will grow by 54 percent, and those age 85 and over by 57 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. Because older adults typically have more health problems, this will translate into a 40 percent increase in demand for registered nurses, and even larger increases for many other health professions, according to the Bureau of Health Professions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. In addition, the overall U.S. population is projected to grow 18 percent in the same period, suggesting that demand for services by younger people will remain relatively constant. Issue: The aging health care workforce The demographics of nursing and other health professions are reflective of our society. However, there are additional factors to consider when looking at the health care workforce. For instance, individuals seeking two-year, four-year or advanced nursing degrees, rather than diploma programs, are delayed in entering the workforce. A similar trend is underway in pharmacy, with more new entrants emerging from training with advanced Pharm. D. degrees in place of the traditional pharmacy bachelor's degrees. These longer training periods reflect the increased expertise required of health care professionals to meet the more-complex needs of older patients, and the growing number patients who, with assistance from advanced medical technology and practice, now survive injuries and illnesses that were once fatal. Another contributing factor to the aging health care workforce is the increase in workers from other fields entering health care training programs. Training programs actively recruit mid-life candidates looking for a career change in part because the number of new college graduates is relatively flat, and will remain so. A push to increase enrollment and capacity in associate degree nurse training program appears to be increasing the number of nurses entering from two-year training programs, though it may be too soon to tell how strong the trend will be. However, given the limited pool of qualified younger candidates and the inexorable advance of medical technology, the trends toward recruiting mature training candidates and longer training time are likely to continue. As a result, more workers will have to be trained to achieve the same number of useful work years in professional practice. Issue: Inadequate training capacity Issue: Diversity in the health care workforce African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans are significantly under-represented among the ranks of registered nurses and most other health care professions. In 2000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses, African Americans accounted for 12 percent of the U.S. population, but only 4.9 percent of registered nurses. Likewise, Hispanics accounted for 11 percent of the U.S. population, but only 2 percent of registered nurses. By 2020, the census bureau projects that African Americans will account for 13 percent of the U.S. population, while Hispanics will account for 17 percent of the U.S. population. Males are also grossly under-represented in many health professions, with females making up more than 90 percent of nurses, speech therapists, occupational therapists and dieticians. Increasing the ethnic and gender diversity of the workforce could significantly expand the pool of health care profession candidates. OpportunitiesOpportunity: Improve efficiency of nurses and other health care professionals Opportunity: Improve employee retention Opportunity: Increase training capacity Opportunity: Increase candidate pool * Fund scholarships and tuition pay-back programs. These programs are
in full swing in many states, and have been effective in attracting candidates
to professional training programs identified as shortage areas. The health professions workforce shortage is a complex problem requiring multiple, long-term solutions. The more health professionals can work together with local schools, government and the public, the more likely solutions will be found. |
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Tool Kit 1: Health Care Workforce Shortage |
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